Despite the political, socioeconomic and cultural changes offered by each election and change of government, few of us were able to predict an integral context that trends for this 2019 and I clarify, not for lack of capacity or knowledge of the Mexican energy sector, but by the differences of vision and approach of the incoming political forces and the outgoing ones that did everything possible to structure a solid Energy Reform that the previous opposition always criticized.
For us, the different actors in this context faced the decision of an ongoing reform, with pending implementation and an approach to strengthen the national industry.
We established for our companies, associations or groups with three options that dominate the feeling and that I could perceive in different talks held with opinion leaders, colleagues from this Mexican energy sector, but above all with the members of the Oil and Gas Alliance group who live day by day the business development that was already affected by obtaining long-term results and the international orientation of the global deals.
What makes the writing of these trends more relevant is that the three options that dominated feeling and perception were:
1. Uncertainty
The actors of the Mexican energy sector strongly resented the decisions that generated uncertainty, because it was in the month of October and through a survey that proceeded to cancel the project, although it was at that time, 32.15% advance and that were also being worked with highly recognized businessmen like Carlos Slim Helú, Carlos Hank Rhon, Rolando Cantú Barragán, Olegario Vázquez Aldir y Bernardo Quintana Isaac, that concentrate 77 percent of the amount paid in more than 300 contracts, according to a previous investigation*
2. New leadership
In words from our Secretaria de Energia and I quote:
«This industry is ours and we are going to recover it»
The Mexican energy sector saw the arrival of Rocío Nahle with a certain pragmatism since many of the processes and instances were already defined and based on the Energy Reform, Today we know that there is a new leadership loaded with new actors working for the 4th transformation, where each one seeks to strengthen their governmental relations, in this new context, new relationships are started in front of those that ended with the current political changes.
3. Another energy model
In short, the Mexican energy sector felt that despite the reform would come a new model and although it is obvious that is was not perceived in the conversations, surrounded by complaints and criticism of the new ads, there were few leaders in this industry who are preparing for this model.
Against all odds and behind closed doors we learned about the effects of the Energy Reform and we could certainly know that the change and its effects will soon be identified as the new model of the Mexican energy sector.
The time has come to work towards the future where the next 3 years will define the course, and finally I believe that
«All changes are accompanied by a range of challenges, for those who dare»
that is why I present the following
3 New Trends in the Mexican Energy Sector
PEMEX and CFE As A Center For The Strengthening Of The Mexican Energy Sector.
One of the most important changes that we must integrate into our new business programs is based on the trend that was to move from PEMEX and CFE as a more or preponderant player to a Mexican energy sector where PEMEX and CFE are the main partner for business development.
I am not talking about the return of the old model, but rather we foresee a PEMEX and a CFE to maintain their assignments and focus on business opportunities, where it is more profitable and effective in the value chain and once associated, with fiscal and legal strength gives preference to develop national companies and where the characteristics of the subsoil require national companies with the technology and experience for the national contribution where the key points that we will see are:
1. Business development under strict anti-corruption regulations and based on technical and operational capabilities to the international standard for the STAFF model.
2. Focused on the increase of the production of the fields that are unemployed due to lack of investment, with a predominant development in the SOUTH REGION.
3. The considerable low investment in offshore projects that are the responsibility of international operators and national partnerships.
4. An international opening based on strengthening the Mexico brand where the most benefited items are oil production, transportation, storage, infrastructure and construction, services for land drilling.
The trend is not maintained with respect to the fact that previously PEMEX and CFE were gradually seeking to reduce their leadership and preponderance in business development and although PEMEX and CFE maintained 80% of the business development in the previous model, the current business plan of PEMEX and CFE is completely aligned to budgets under these trends.
Refining To Confront World Trends in the International Energy Sector.
Despite criticism that touches the new leadership to mark the trend, strengthen our refineries with a term of 3 years, which also establishes this month of MARCH 2019 the global tender of the new refinery and have already announced important (although experts say otherwise) amounts for the strengthening of current ones with the objective of increasing gasoline and fuels, the key points that we will see are:
1. Infrastructure and construction services in the Minatitlan, Salamanca, Tula, Cadereyta, Madero and Salinas Cruz areas with the rehabilitation project in the first year of government.
2. In the same sense and with a vision of economic growth, technology services and industrial services are required for the construction of the refinery at Dos Bocas, Veracruz.
3. Business development in the southeast of the country for the generation of self-sufficient energy where 17 processing plants, 93 storage tanks are foreseen.
The trend focused on rehabilitation and construction to increase the production of hydrocarbons for the final sale will be the constant as it seeks to create 23 thousand direct jobs and 112 thousand indirect for a total of 135 thousand, a challenge, according to the leaders required by the support of the entire national industry. *
Transportation and Storage Structure to Support the Strategies of the Mexican Energy Sector.
A trend that remains, despite the rumors of the departure of the country from the Canadian TRANSCANADA and the reduction of the over-regulation that was maintained in PEMEX where the key points are:
1. The construction of a hydrocarbon transport network that supports the national demand.
2. Private investment that supports the government’s plans to increase the supply and improve the final costs of hydrocarbons
3. The focus of PEMEX’s business plan on its most profitable business units and, in turn, the integration of these plans with the actors of the entire production chain where there is an opportunity to operate terminals independent of the supply network itself.
4. Strengthen the shortage generated by the purchase of fuel on the black market.
Specifically, the trend is to allow domestic and foreign companies integrate into the business model and allow the government to concretely comply with its search to integrate a business model where PEMEX is more profitable with the responsibility it has with the current supply and the demand for 40 million vehicles parks. *
I am sure there are other trends that we will see throughout this year, each focused on giving certainty to the investments made in our country, with a new leadership but also as part of the business strategy of a new model that coexists with the international industry that developed with a greater presence in our Mexican energy sector thanks to the energy reform where of course the preference of national content will be more demanding and determinants against the commitment to comply with their respective contracts.
What tendencies do you consider to be part of this approach? In the day to day what for us who are in the sector know how a «Battlefield» where business happens.
https://www.gob.mx/sener/es/articulos/el-gobierno-de-mexico-anuncia-el-plan-de-produccion-de-combustibles-que-asegurara-el-acceso-a-la-energia-y-al-desarrollo-equilibrado?idiom=es
